Are We in a Polycrisis?

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

We built it, we trained it, but we don’t know what it’s doing.
– Sam Bowman, AI researcher, NYU data science and computer professor

A BIG THINK

One thing that seemed obvious from Wednesday’s Republican debate: The Republicans have some interesting candidates. I only wish at least one candidate would suggest he or she intends to be a “thoughtful president.”

I think we need a thoughtful president, but maybe the thoughtful message does not get a candidate to a primary win.

Vivek Ramaswamy has chosen “truth” as his pitch. I saw his campaign signs in New Hampshire a few days ago: “Truth Vivek.” This seems like a problem, given that we’re in a moment where truth has become subjective. Today the truth is what you want to believe or what you need to believe. By aligning himself with the word “truth,” Vivek seems to think he knows it. Should it surprise us that Vivek has vowed to pardon Trump? He seems very much like a young Trump.

No matter if you are a Republican or a Democrat, Wednesday night’s Republican debate will NOT make China happy. The general takeaway from many of the candidates on the debate stage was that China is enemy #1. This is a problem for China, the US and the world. Confronting China as an enemy is only going to make them more of an enemy.

Cramming “America is the greatest” or “democracy is the greatest” down the throats of certain countries around the world has obviously not worked in recent decades. It seems high time for a better, more thoughtful—rather than confrontational—approach with both China and Russia. Maybe the better path is to show them why the US is a more resilient, prosperous and fair country.

Three candidates did come across to me as thoughtful: Tim Scott, Doug Burgum and, surprisingly, Mike Pence. I don’t see how a North Dakotan could ever be elected president, but I appreciate Doug Burgum being there and throwing out his generally good ideas. As far as Mike Pence—he wears his religion on his sleeve, and in this American moment with religion on the wane, it’s hard to see how this could help him get elected. This leaves Tim Scott, who I really like because he seems thoughtful. But he may not have enough gravitas to get past the primaries. He certainly was the most quiet candidate in the debate.

I like Nikki Haley but wonder if working for Trump rubbed off on her. She seemed more confrontational than thoughtful in the debate. Asa Hutchinson sounded like a governor from Arkansas who is best suited as a governor from Arkansas. Chris Christie had some good moments, but I can’t see mainstream Republicans voting for a former New Jersey governor. That leaves Ron DeSantis, who may have quietly won the debate by not being too much like Trump, Vivek or Haley. He wasn’t so confrontational and stated his perspectives plainly.

We live in a highly complicated and rapidly changing world. Nobody has all the answers to all the questions. Too much of what comes out of Washington fails to consider unintended consequences, which only means we eventually need more Washington. This is why I’d like a thoughtful president.

By the way, the numbers suggest that Tucker Carlson and Trump won the media contest. The debate on Fox News apparently got 50MM viewers, while the Carlson-Trump interview got 75MM viewers. Yeah yeah yeah…depending on the source, the reported numbers seem all over the place, but the basic story seems to be that more people watched Trump than did the Fox debate.

Stay tuned. There’s still fifteen months before the election. Let’s hope that, at a minimum, the process helps voters better understand our country’s challenges and the possible solutions needed to create a better world for the average citizen and a better overall world.

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

All the Wall Street cues
Say we should be in a recession
And recession indicator says it’s still coming
Maybe it will be a rolling recession

Back-to-school supplies’ costs skyrocket.
And this time, the culprit isn’t inflation

Department stores are worried
Excess savings may be gone.
As default auto loans surge

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Have consumer prices peaked?
Kraft Heinz CEO thinks so

10 things that are getting cheaper
Is a deflationary period coming?

The cost of insurance is going up
Reinsurers are sick of taking the hits.

THE LABOR VIEW

Union strikes are on the rise
Will price increases follow pay increases?

We gotta work from 6-to-2
To fight climate change, says Oxford

Talent is overrated.
Mental grit is what you really want

What exactly is burnout?
McKinsey on the case.

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Support for Germany’s conservative party
Is surging
Can Germany actually fix its economy?

Is Britain really as poor as Mississippi?
Not yet, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be.

Tensions rise between US and France
Disputes over how to respond to Niger coup.

GLOBAL

Global wealth is falling
For the first time since 2008.

The US left Afghanistan two years ago.
A look at life there under Taliban rule

Will the rest of the world
Inherit China’s deflation?

PLAYING WITH FIRE

India considers Russian wheat imports
So long as the price is right.

Brazil binges on Russian fuel
Damn the sanctions!

Alibaba sells goods in Russia.
So Ukraine declares them a Russian ally

GEOPOLITICS IN FLUX

Putin goes on tirade against the dollar
He’s counting on the BRICS+ to break it.
As BRICS add 6 new members
A worthwhile BRICS currency
Can only happen if China and India become allies.

Russia is a giant enriched uranium producer.
How does the West find new supply?
As BRICS accepts in new members

China controls crucial war minerals
Oopsie doopsie.

FINANCE

Hedge funds have made tons of money.
Are their better days behind them?

The SPAC collapse
One more gold rush bust in motion.

Private credit is the place to be
What happens when everyone piles in?
PE is now handing the keys to company lenders

Why PE likes owner-managed businesses
They’re cheaper than buying from PE.

REAL ESTATE

US housing market is up $3T
A supply shortage firms up values.
Goldman backtracks on home price declines
New home sales at 17-month high
Mortgage rates are at 20-year high

Office tenants are renewing leases.
But for much less space

Why being an Airbnb host
Ain’t what it used to be.

TECHNOLOGY

SF, the epicenter of tech
Is at war with self-driving cars.

An ex-Apple exec is inventing an “iPhone killer.”
You gotta watch the leaked videos

Nvidia’s sales explode
Still more upside to come
Should the AI chip maker be subject to a windfall profit tax?
Eight startups want in on Nvidia’s market

THE CHAT ON AI

AI could boost company earnings 20%
By replacing human jobs
White-collar jobs are now at risk

The skeptical case against AI
Lots of hype, but what’s the reality?

Generative AI’s breakout year
McKinsey looks at the lay of the land.

THE NEXT NORMAL

Are we in a polycrisis
Of economics, geopolitics and ecology?

Suicides reach all-time high in 2022
What is going on?

Is the wine industry in trouble?
Beer and spirits are all the rage.
American drinking habits have changed
One big winner, one big loser.

THE WAR ON CARBON

The US is set to lead global LNG
Cheap and reliable energy remains irresistible.

Farmers are paid big money to trap carbon.
But it may not even work

Is divesting from oil
Little more than virtue signaling?

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

Blackstone closes new $7.1B fund
That will focus on energy transition.

Solar tariffs may be levied
On more China-made solar panels.

Solar built on former trash landfills
Turning trash into treasure.

THE EV DREAM

China dominates the global EV market.
Here’s how it happened
Its auto empire is headed to the US

GM ready to roll out 6 new EVs
Going big into a market that’s softening?

Want to sell a used EV?
Don’t expect a premium price

THE CHINA SYNDROME

China’s largest RE investor is a mess
Is the same true of China overall?
Their local-government financing vehicles
Have a $9 TRILLION debt problem

China worries about internal political stability
And maybe they should.
The country is facing a crisis of confidence

How does China achieve its global goals?
With stealth and deception
As it sneaks up on Taiwan
It woos Taiwanese teenagers with tech
And they pump out tons of fake science
Any surprise to anyone?

THE WASHING-TONE

So Janet Yellen ate magic mushrooms in China
And swears she didn’t get high
Channeling Clinton much?

Fed will “proceed carefully,” says Chairman Powell
Doesn’t seem convinced inflation is over.

MAKING A BETTER YOU

What conversation can do for us
Maybe make us more human?

How to possibly stave off Alzheimer’s.
Protect your mitochondria

Gene therapy that reverses aging
And in just one week!

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

Who was Duns Scotus?
He proved God’s existence.

What the heck happened in 2012?
The birth of the modern world

Are you rich?
Here are the places where you could be

VACATION TIME IS ALMOST OVER

The UK’s ancient stones
Who did this stuff?

Need to beat the heat?
Get an inflatable pool!!!

Looking to vacation solo?
Here are five great ideas

SONG OF THE WEEK

“Planet of the Bass”
A summer viral hit from comedian Kyle Gordon.
Lyrics are poetry, supposedly.

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

Does upward mobility still exist in the US?
The All-In besties discuss the “Rich Men North of Richmond.”
Has the country protest song officially made a comeback?

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

One of my favorite films:
Big Night from 1996.
And then there’s that Timpano recipe.

A dreamy tribute to Brian Eno
Eclectic music with eclectic imagery.

From God’s shoes to satellites in heaven
Children weigh in on religion.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Some end-of-summer recipes:
Oregano-marinated tomato salad
Grilled pizza
Basil pesto
Summer gazpacho
Grilled corn and poblano chili salad
Peruvian chicken skewers
Lemon garlic shrimp with orzo
Wild salmon with corn and pepper salsa
Matcha ice cream

The great hot dogs of America
For summer, for anytime.

THE RANDOMS

I’m starting to wonder if all those new handheld payment devices and new payment kiosks are increasing inflation since they pressure us to tip more often, even when we’re not provided a service beyond someone taking our order. It’s certainly an awkward moment when the server is staring at you as you’re being asked to tip.

Maybe we don’t need to worry so much about tipping people for taking our order. More fast food companies are in the process of replacing human order-takers with kiosks. Will this trend spread?

Will Putin’s obvious murder of the Wagner chief who defied him thwart or catalyze his own demise?

What are the odds the Wagner chief was not on that plane, either because he has another agenda or because Putin promised him a few billion dollars to back off and disappear himself into anonymity?

Could China’s explosive growth over the last 40 years now prove to be the catalyst to a global recession? Going from a country with most people on the brink of starvation to what will soon be the largest economy in the world in such a short period likely comes with consequences. Does China’s current problems present an opportunity for the US?

After reading last week’s Big Think, a newsletter reader commented that, in the two most recent TLVs, I’d discussed some touchy subjects. “I am pessimistic on the chances of substantive policy discussions these days,” he said.

The universe quickly channeled my reply, “You never make a sale without first making a pitch.”

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

10 Rules for a Good Life
August 18, 2023

Did Fitch Have a Point After All?
August 11, 2023