America’s Astonishing Economic Record

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

Never get so busy making a living that you forget to make a life.
– Dolly Parton

THOUGHTS FROM DOUG

What does it tell us about our world when the richest person in the world, Bernard Arnault, the CEO of LVMH, makes luxury goods?  

Is the luxury economy peaking?

Someone figured out how to get ChatGPT and Bard into an actual dialog. Then he used Google’s text-to-voice app to create an actual dialog. Here’s their “conversation.”

Historically, recessions have surfaced unexpectedly, when everyone was sure the economy was strong. But today, everyone says a recession is coming. Will the unexpected be no recession?

Recession or not, we do seem to be tiptoeing through the economic tulips.

When Japanese cars took off in the 1970s, they were the cheapest cars you could buy. But then that was during a high-inflation period when people needed to buy things on the cheap. Wait a minute…

How do Western automakers compete with an $11K EV from China? 

And how will Western automakers replace the profit they make from ICE part sales and maintenance? EVs have fewer parts and require much less maintenance.

If money market funds and new financial players like Apple siphon off deposits from banks and if private credit funds keep growing, then do we need banks?

Will Apple buy Robinhood one day?

It’s hard to predict the future when so many influences of the last 40 years have reversed course.

At what point in time might AI get to “the HAL moment”?

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

America’s astonishing economic record
And it ain’t over yet. 

Americans borrow money for groceries
Credit card debt at record high
Retail sales fall for the second month
Not great economic signs.

Diesel demand down globally
Suggests a global slowdown is coming.

A BANKING CRISIS???

Banks must now pay higher interest
The easy-deposit era is over
So is the easy-and-cheap credit era

Bond yields fell after recent crisis
Which helped out banks.

Apple has great savings rates
Taking advantage of bank turmoil.
Depositors are fleeing banks

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

More economists pessimistic on inflation
What do they see that we should know?

Rents have started to drop
This will bring down inflation.

The cost of inflation
In 5 simple charts.

THE LABOR VIEW

Giving employees a day off
Is a new company perk.

Your resume has 6 seconds
To get a reader’s attention.

Trying to get people back to the office
Isn’t working so well
Will paying for attendance get them back?

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Europe is just not ready
To be the world’s third super power

Bureaucrats want to ban forever chemicals.
Industry says it’s a bad idea

Bureaucrats pass a carbon import tax
Imports play big role in Europe carbon footprint
Who gave Europe reign over the global economy?

GLOBAL

Want to buy a cheap fixer upper?
Japan is almost giving them away

The IMF makes Ghana a test case
New rules on debt restructuring.

A new crisis is coming to Zimbabwe
As South Africa cancels their right to work.

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Russia bombs its own city
They’re not just evil but stupid, too.

Ukraine needs more rockets.
Supply chains are holding allies back

Russian oil exports
Return to pre-war levels
Middle East countries are big customers

Russia is destroying Bakhmut
This is a REAL war!

THE NEW COLD WAR

Russian foreign minister courts Latin America
Trying to line up friends on this side of the world.
Russia and China ramp up cooperation

Iran and Venezuela sign an agreement
Iran to help their oil and gas industry.

Putin meets Chinese defense minister
And praises their military ties

THE FINANCE WORLD

Investment banking is in a slump.
Will a recovery come in 2024?

Credit tightening crimps PE
It’s harder to juice returns now.

Family offices are hot after
Private credit and venture capital

REAL ESTATE

CalSTRS to write down portfolio
Taking a $50B real estate hit.
Insurers back away from office market

Single family housing starts climb
While multifamily falls.

Where rents are rising and falling
Austin is the big loser.

TECHNOLOGY

Apple’s Tim Cook meets India PM
India is the new China.
India’s population passes China’s

The cybersecurity nightmare
Is only going to get worse.
Used routers carry your secrets

PC shipments down 29%
Less demand or a move to notebooks and phones?

THE CHAT ON AI

ChatGPT really threatens Google
They’re scrambling for a solution.
And weakening their platform

AI will hit people “like an asteroid”
Elon Musk wants AI regulated.
While he launches his own AI company
To understand the universe
And real truth

Some practical uses of AI
Making life easier for normal people.

THE NEXT NORMAL

Digital nomads multiply
54 countries have nomad visas

Oracle calls it.
Humanity is overloaded with data

Better McDonald’s burgers are coming
You think they’ll raise prices, too?

THE WAR ON CARBON

The brewing energy crisis
Is showing signs in Texas

California’s ban on nat gas stoves
Doesn’t hold up in court

Injecting CO2 underground is a legal nightmare
Not under my grass!

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

Recycled batteries are coming
They’ll soon be in iPhones.

New Exxon-Toyota fuel reduces emissions
And can be used in existing ICE vehicles.

A copper shortage
Threatens the green transition

THE EV DREAM

Watch out, Tesla!
Here comes Volkswagen

Watch out, everyone!
China’s BYD has an $11K EV
As Tesla drops prices again

Chinese EVs dominate China
Western automakers are losing out.

THE CHINA SYNDROME

US busts China’s brainwashing scheme
Not gonna help China’s situation.

China’s surgical retaliation
Westerners are gonna pay!

China’s $8.3T fiscal crisis
Will be tough to resolve.

THE WASHING-TONE

House Republicans’ debt ceiling plan
Lots of IRA backtracking
Where will the compromise land?

Biden’s climate law
Puts billions into oil company coffers

Over $500B stolen from the US
Massive pandemic relief fund fraud.

MAKING A BETTER YOU

The Mediterranean diet
Is really good for you
And so is yoga
A 2-minute walk after eating, too
Ice cream is also good for you
Yep, eat up!

The all-time most popular TED talks
Probably plenty to learn here!

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

The most remote and beautiful
Hiking trails in the world!

She lived in a cave for 500 days
It was “excellent and unbeatable.”

The Eddington limit
Has now been surpassed
What does this mean?

SONG OF THE WEEK

“Amarillo by Morning”
Terry Stafford wrote and recorded it.
George Strait made it popular
Lyrics are poetry, you know.

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

Jason Karp: Live a Healthier Life
The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Mrs. Davis trailer.
A nun battles AI to save the world.

The flying lizard
Nature is just cool!

BMX riding in the sky
People are crazy!!!

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Want to eat like King Charles?
Here’s his coronation quiche recipe

What is the healthiest bread?
I like them all!

Broccoli is good for you.
12 recipes using frozen broccoli

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Deflation and Recession Are Nigh
April 14, 2023

300MM Job Losses Coming
April 7, 2023