A Majority Thinks Government is Corrupt

July 29, 2022

You’ve always had people who sell snake oil. But they had to go door to door, and now with social media they can sit at home and be amplified to every corner of the world.
– Former Twitter executive Jason Goldman

THOUGHTS FROM DOUG

We have recently learned that businesses overstocked inventory post pandemic. This overstocking is creating recessionary pressure. Do you think businesses may have also over-hired post pandemic?

I wonder if the recently reported consumption growth comes from people fleeing their “caves” for vacations. Not only is there pent up vacation demand after two years of Covid, but also with a potential recession looming, people may be saying, “Screw it, I’m going to have some fun before we’re in an economic lockdown.”

Bob Farrell’s investment rule #8—Bear markets have three stages: sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downturn.

Over the next few months, we’ll see what happens to inflation, the economy and the stock market. But I’m sticking to my previous call that inflation is most influenced by the price of energy. Stagflation, too. The cost of energy trickles down to everything. Everything.

COVID and the Ukraine war are evidence that free flowing globalization, the primary economic engine for the last thirty or more years, may be over. So what’s going to replace it? What’s our next economic engine?

The primary economic influence behind globalization seemed to be cheap labor. I guess we could also add ever cheaper capital. What cheap thing will be behind our next growth period? Cheap energy? Cheap minerals? More cheaper capital? What have I missed?

Did you see the story about a new solar cycle that is causing satellites to fall from orbit much faster than normal? You think the solar cycle has anything to do with our climate, or is it just about burning hydrocarbons? What are all the influences on climate? Is the only climate influence human carbon emissions? Really? That’s all?

“Why” may be the most important question to ask. How often do you ask it?

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

Two straight quarters of GDP decline
Usually means we’re in a recession.
Remain calm like this guy

As the Fed keeps raising interest rate
Will recession force the Fed to U-turn?
Investors think rate cuts are coming

Here comes the inventory problem
More recession fuel.

Shallow recession?
Totally delusional, says Nouriel Roubini

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Be ready to pay Amazon more.
Their logistics costs are exploding
They upped Prime price in Europe by 43%

The upper middle class gets squeezed
Their savings depend on financial asset values.

Consumer behemoth raises prices 11%
Will they ever lower them again?

THE LABOR VIEW

Worker pay grew in second quarter
Yet Goldman expects wage growth to slow
How’s that going to work with inflation?

“We absolutely have too many people”
Ford CEO is going to take out the ax.

McKinsey opines on the Great Attrition
How do employers handle it?
40% of workers still want to change jobs

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

Irish farmers get bushwhacked
Following the Sri Lankan path?

Italy is in political chaos
What does this mean for Europe?

Can the EU survive this crisis?
Higher interest rates with still-high debt.

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

Germany has to fire up coal plants
As does Europe broadly
They really have no other alternatives.
German utility company needs a bailout
And Europe’s gas prices soar

Kazakhstan doubles coal exports to Europe
Coal is saving Europe for now.

Nigeria joins the Russian alternative list
How long before Europe changes its suppliers?

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Iran and Russia get closer
Iran to maintain Russian aircraft.
As well as provide them with drones

Can we stop China from buying Russian oil?
Some US Senators want to do so.

Is the Russian economy imploding?
Would this help or hurt the war effort?

Russia will run out of steam
Says the British spy chief.

GLOBAL

IMF sees global growth slow
And warns it could slow more.

Japan forgoes setting a defense spending ceiling
A new arms race may have started.

South Korea has a homegrown jet
They join the supersonic fighter club.

THE FINANCE WORLD

Have you read the new Manchin bill?
It’s going to whack Wall Street fund managers.

The strong dollar wipes off billions
From corporate earnings.
And it clobbers emerging economies

Junk borrowing slows to a trickle
Are restructurings and bankruptcies on their way?

Private equity jumps into Hollywood
Are they entering at a market peak?

TECHNOLOGY

Big tech exceptionalism
Is it over?

Facebook wants to be TikTok
Would this destroy it?

China pushes semiconductor growth
While Washington plans semiconductor stimulus
While Washington plans semiconductor stimulus
Is it corporate welfare or necessary to compete? I
s it corporate welfare or necessary to compete?
Yet we may already have a chip oversupply
Or maybe we don’t

THE CRYPTO MEME

Is Ethereum changing the crypto game?
Will it lead to sustainability or evaporation?

Insider trading hits crypto
Tip of the iceberg?

What happens if people stop believing?
Is crypto’s value theoretical?

THE NEXT NORMAL

The rich rush to sell luxury real estate
Prices are going to start coming down.

While a middle-class lifestyle
Gets further out of reach

If the US wants better mass transit
Maybe it should follow Italy and Turkey.

THE WAR ON CARBON

We’re not going to save the planet
The Congo seeks to monetize its resources.

The dark side of solar
From Harvard Business Review!

The air conditioning paradox
Is cooling homes heating up the world?

The world’s ultra wealthy
Are driving global warming

THE CHINA SYNDROME

A Taiwan war
Would create global economic chaos

China’s smartphone sales collapse
Lowest level in over a decade.
China’s economy to miss growth targets

Is China’s debt bomb about to explode?
How many Black Swans can we take?

China, the investment pariah
Global investors now avoid them.
The rich want to leave China

THE WASHING-TONE

U of Chicago poll not so patriotic
A majority thinks government is corrupt.

Will the new Forward Party change this?
Guess my bet on their success?

The PGA lobbies Washington
It deserves to be a monopoly, right?

D.C. mayor furious with Texas and Arizona
For dumping their illegals in his town.

MAKING A BETTER YOU

The case for pointless goals
Embrace frivolity every so often.

The Enneagram Personality Test
Want to know who you are?

Improve your conversation skills
It will improve your relationships.

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

Top Audubon winning photos
Birds are truly amazing.

Ready for a virtual vacation?
Try this YouTube channel.

How to stand up on a paddle board
For the ultimate full body workout.

SONG OF THE WEEK

“Woodstock” by Joni Mitchell
From 1970.
Lyrics are poetry, you know.

78-yr-old Joni sings “Both Sides Now”
At 2022 Newport Jazz Festival.
Lyrics

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

Britain has a dynamic future leader
Kemi Badenoch’s star is rising.

The 400-meter hurdles record
Sydney McLaughlin destroys it.

Hey, Lord of the Rings fans!
New trailer for The Rings of Power

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

How social media dissolves society
Social psychologist Jonathan Haidt explains our stupidity crisis.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Ten great ceviche recipes
Bring it on!

It’s summer time.
Drink more rum!

The United States of fried chicken
Don’t click the link…don’t…don’t.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Clean Air Causes Global Warming
July 22, 2022

The Labor Shortage Looks Permanent
July 15, 2022