It’s All About the Kolache

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

You cannot change your destination overnight, but you can change your direction overnight.
– Jim Rohn

A BIG THINK

It’s All About the Kolache

I hope everyone had a super nice Thanksgiving day yesterday. Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday because it’s all about food. Ha ha! Those who know me well know that if I’m not on the computer or phone or with a fly rod in my hand, then I’m in the kitchen having fun. Cooking is one way I relax, one way I learn how things go together and sometimes how they don’t.

With Thanksgiving, there’s no pressure to buy presents, which the recipient may or may not like. Man, can that be stressful. There’s no holiday party to attend, for which you may or may not need a host or hostess gift. It’s not like a birthday or anniversary, which comes with the pressure of finding a meaningful gift or a memorable message.

Thanksgiving is just about enjoying food and company, whether that’s family, friends, strangers or a mix of all three. And, of course, gratitude.

There’s a ton for me to be thankful for these days. Have the best family someone could ask for, great co-workers, super friends. And then, lucky me, several days every week, I get the chance to meet someone brand new. That’s right, many days a week I get to meet someone brand new. How fun is that?

The day before Thanksgiving, I got to meet two new people from different walks of life. One is a very well-educated young immigrant Millennial trying to find the best career path in today’s very topsy-turvy world, and another is a sheriff in Fayette County, TX, who was having an off-duty drink at a local watering hole. Talk about a range of people! I greatly enjoyed my conversations with both.

I enjoy conversation with everyone. There’s so much to learn and so many different experiences and stories out there. Learning them makes my own life even more fulfilling. Thank the Lord! Thank the world! Thank the universe! Thank you!

But let’s get back to food, since it’s such a huge part of the Thanksgiving experience. I appreciate all the typical Thanksgiving food, whether it’s turkey or ham or prime rib and all the usual side dishes. I appreciate it when people infuse the standard American fare with their own cultural spin, be it Indian, Asian, African, Hispanic, European—whatever cuisine might fill the table on the holiday. But there is one food in particular I want to highlight, one type of food that I am especially thankful for, a food that most people in the world have never tried, but a food found and enjoyed all over Texas: kolache.

How much less joy would be in this world without the kolache? This doughy, sausage and cheese or fruit-filled pastry—brought to Texas by Czech settlers in the mid-to-late 1800s—can be breakfast, lunch or even dinner. Or it can be dessert all day long. Just yesterday morning, as I grabbed my daily addiction at my local 7-Eleven, greeted by the workers who know me by name, I wondered and then asked them, “Where’s the turkey-and-dressing kolache?” Ah…now there’s a new idea, certainly one some creative Texan somewhere, no matter their country of origin, could whip up.

Enjoy your leftovers, your Friday of doing nothing or of doing lots of things, and enjoy the rest of the long weekend. And thanks for being who you are. Keep doing all that good stuff you do. And don’t forget to be thankful for those Europeans who came to Texas and brought with them their lovely little special treat—the humble, delightful, versatile kolache.

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

What will Black Friday tell us?
Retailers lower prices to turn stuff

IRS delays tax filing deadlines
Good for us, not good for the government.

Leading economic indicators decline again
The 19th consecutive decline says something.

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Falling fuel and airfare prices
Make us all feel better.

Where is shelter inflation headed?
The SF Fed says it will plateau in a year.

Auto insurance costs skyrocket.
As does insurance company CEO compensation

THE LABOR VIEW

The pay raise needed to make people happy
Is a lot more than they currently make.
Millennials “need” $500K a year

Some Wells Fargo employees
Kicked off a unionization effort

“Super commuting” is on the rise
It may save small towns.

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

The Dutch vote far right
Greek’s left-wing parliament is breaking apart

Germany freezes spending
Green energy will take a hit.
Oh wait, they may have found a workaround

UK raises minimum wage 10%
And cuts taxes to spur economy
They also have a troubling immigration issue

THE GLOBAL GAME

Argentina has a radical new president.
He’s a far-right libertarian
He wants to abolish their central bank.
He wants to adopt the dollar
Which may be impossible.

India’s fake growth story
Uh oh!
Their IT service industry booms

Buffett goes big on Japan
The sleeper awakes!

THE UKRAINE FIRE

Ukrainian soldiers slog it out
“Zombie” Russians keep coming.

Ukraine offensive has stalled
Except at sea.

Finland steps up Russian border closing
Overwhelmed by migrants and asylum seekers.

EU falls behind on their munitions promise
Tough times for Europe.

THE GAZA FIRE

Israel and Hamas cut a hostage/cease-fire deal
Will it really happen?

AI killer drones are the new “it” weapon
Nations debate limits of use.

Houthi rebels hijack ship, escalate war
“We will sink your ships,” they say.
Houthis attack Israel from Yemen

EVOLVING GEOPOLITICS

China steps up Palestinian support
Can we trust them on anything?

Ukraine and Gaza hot wars, a cold war with China
Is the US overextended?

Xi’s says: don’t weaponize or politicize trade
Is this what he calls trade policy?

FINANCE

Private credit is avoiding club deals
Too many cooks in the kitchen.

ESG investing is a bust
Woke memes keep petering out.

Private debt has exploded since 2007.
From $280B in 2007 to $11.5T in 2022

REAL ESTATE

Home sales at 13-year low
What if a real recession shows up?

Office landlords
Can’t get loans anymore

The remote work mystery.
Offices sit empty but traffic is worse

TECHNOLOGY

Everyone’s talking about AI these days.
While CRISPR is about to change lives
The first CRISPR medicine was just approved
A revolution in medicine is unfolding

Binance is fined $4B+
Global bad guys love crypto.

Taiwan’s top computer maker
To produce servers in the US.

THE CHAT ON AI

Sam Altman gets fired from OpenAI
OpenAI employee letter to the board
GET LOST IMMEDIATELY!
Oh now, Sam Altman returns to OpenAI
“Knife fight in a clown car”
New board includes Larry Summers?

Nvidia revenue explodes
But misses analyst estimates

Amazon launches free AI classes
Anyone can become a billionaire.

THE NEXT NORMAL

McKinsey and peers in the hot seat
Their future doesn’t look so good.

A new age of austerity
Might be in our future
Following a new age of conservatism

Private enterprise works wonders.
Except with elder care

THE WAR ON CARBON

Carbon capture a “dangerous delusion”
So says environmental groups.

US steel-maker slashes carbon emissions
A role model for others to follow.

EU to limit import of high methane emissions fuel
EU citizens must love higher energy costs.

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

France passes new ESG rules
They could hurt companies with O&G assets.

Effort to make green ethanol jet fuel stalls
Thanks to a pipeline building battle.

Canada lines up $4B green hydrogen project
They want to keep up with Biden’s green push.

THE EV DREAM

Ford downsizes battery plant
EV demand is lackluster.

EVs are old news.
E-bikes are where it’s at

Climate activists focus on EVs
They need to clean up their game.

THE CHINA SYNDROME

Many of China’s problems
Stem from Xi’s central planning

China makes list of 50 property firms
That it needs to support.

Gallup leaves China
China doesn’t want to be polled.

THE WASHING-TONE

Retirements surge in Congress
Getting out while the gettin’s good.

FDIC chairman ignored bad workplace behavior
Do bureaucrats ever get fired?

Biden agrees with China to stop fossil fuel use
WTF?

MAKING A BETTER YOU

A brain reading device can improve your life
Oh, really?

Get surprising health benefits
From walking backwards.

A life hack, the hypnagogic state
That Einstein, Edison and Dali used.

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

People in hotter climates
Eat spicier foods, but why?

Streaming is 40% of TV consumption
YouTube beats Netflix?

A seaside sauna craze sweeps Ireland
Is it threatening the pub scene?!?
The 10,000-year-old sauna history

SONG OF THE WEEK

The Idrîsî Ensemble
Revives ancient music.

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

The three types of failure
And what we can learn from them.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

The Maestro trailer.
Bradley Cooper channels Leonard Bernstein.

The Napoleon trailer.
Joaquin Phoenix teams up with Ridley Scott.

Chasse Galerite
A French Creole folktale comes to light.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

The leftovers…

Turkey tetrazzini with spinach
Mashed potato croquettes
Leftover turkey shepherd’s pie
Turkey and stuffing quiche
Turkey à la king
The leftovers hot pocket

Pumpkin pie coffee cake
For the weekend after.

THE RANDOMS

Might a “soft landing” be nothing more than the beginning of a real recession?

I’ve never understood the term “Black Friday.” It doesn’t sound like a nice day to do anything, much less shopping.

At the recent APEC summit in San Francisco, China’s Xi said: “The fundamental goal of China’s development is to improve the well-being of the Chinese people, not to replace anyone.” I guess abiding by Xi’s social credit system is one thing that “improves well-being.”

I would bet that the drop in EV demand would reverse if consumers were able to buy a reliable brand name EV for $25,000 or less. Oh, so now I read that Washington is keeping out Chinese vehicles to protect our own EV makers.

I’m not sure inflation even has to return for rates to stay higher for longer or for rates to go back up after they decline. The problem could be ever increasing government debt. Without enough buyers of government debt, it seems rates would have to rise.

Speaking of inflation, do you think the price of monthly streaming services, internet access, cloud software, cell phone, home insurance, car insurance, business insurance, doctor appointments, hospital visits, and higher education will EVER go down?

If the glory days of Wall Street are in the rearview, might we soon see the big commercial banks jettison their investment banking arms? These are expensive operations to keep around if revenue and profit are past their peak. Is it time for Wall Street to de-consolidate?

The reason history tends to repeat itself is because people only learn from personal experience. If you have not personally experienced an economic depression or world war, you have no idea how to prevent them. We tend to make the same mistakes over and over again because the generational memory of bad times eventually dies out. And in good times, we tend to lose our discipline and let our guard down.

Several years ago, I started saying that “the truth is what you want to believe” or “the truth is what you need to believe.” Well, it seems that with AI, the truth is going to be even harder to find.

How do you maintain free speech when the new media or even science can’t even verify the truth?

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Is Deflation Our Next Worry?
November 17, 2023

Work Will Be Voluntary
November 10, 2023