Why AI Will Save the World

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself from within.
– Will Durant, author of the epic The Story of Civilization

A WEEKLY BIG THINK

When it comes to energy, where is our put-a-man-on-the-moon vision, leadership and investment?

The solar panels and windmills we believe create renewable energy are, in the end, going to create an enormous amount of garbage. What are the environmental consequences of billions of used solar panels and millions of used windmills (and don’t forget the batteries) once they’ve reached the end of their useful lives, which is about 30 years? What are we going to do with all that junk?

The typical answer is that we will figure it out as we go, that we will solve the disposal and recycling problem before it becomes a problem. Good luck with that. We already have a giant e-waste problem. And have you seen the recent studies suggesting recycling plastic may be creating an even more toxic environment and posing risk to human health? 

How can we even call solar, wind and batteries “renewable”? They require a massive amount of mineral extraction and mineral processing, which must then be manufactured and converted into the products themselves. Then they are transported across the world. Then they must be installed. Then they must be disposed of. This all takes enormous amounts of energy and releases who knows how much carbon. And this is renewable?

Is solar and wind the best we’ve got in “new” energy creation technologies? Neither is even a new technology. Wind power has been around for centuries, solar for numerous decades. Sure, we are tweaking them around the edges to increase their productivity, but neither of these “technologies” is a step-change in energy creation or cost. 

Oil and gas were an enormous step-change from coal. Oil and gas were cheaper and obviously plentiful, as we’re still producing both in record amounts. The refining of oil and gas brought even broader economic value in many different industries including pharmaceuticals, agriculture, packaging, clothing and more.

Are these old technologies, wind and solar, and the new lithium batteries really the best use of our time capital? This is the best we can do? 

Wouldn’t a more productive use of our capital be an investment in finding or creating cleaner energy that’s also highly affordable? When the cost of energy waterfalls into every single good produced and service provided, how can our economies sustain themselves when energy costs are high? Greater prosperity can only come with cheaper, not more expensive, energy. Do solar and wind doom economic growth and prosperity?

Solar and wind really seem like an unproductive use of our capital. Their risks seem high; they are going to create more problems than they solve. As the old saying goes, sometimes the devil you know is better than the devil you don’t know.

If we want a new energy future, we need a moonshot. And we can only get a moonshot from that put-a-man-on-the-moon leadership.

THE ECONOMIC VIEW

The full-employment recession
People keep getting hired.
While planned layoffs have soared

US railcar loadings down 28%
The goods economy is slowing down.

Mortgage applications down
For the fourth week in a row.

THE INFLATION BOGEYMAN

Saudi Arabia cuts oil output
Higher oil prices, higher inflation?

Yet commodity prices are slumping
Is lower inflation coming?

Inflation drives EU into recession
What does this mean for the US?

THE LABOR VIEW

US jobless claims surge
Will it be a soft landing?

Robot pizza-making company fails
All hail the human pizza-maker!

CEO tells employees to return to the office
And many revolt.
Don’t dare ask Wall Streeters to return

Harvard MBAs face a bleak job market.
Potentially half of recent grads are jobless

MEANWHILE IN EUROPE

In 1362, “climate change” created a massive flood
A German city has recently been found in the ocean.

Italy PM wants to fix its economy
Her “Made in Italy” movement. 

German meat consumption is down big
Is sausage no longer the national food?

GLOBAL

Global economy on precarious footing
Suggests the World Bank.
While Chinese exports plunge

Japanese service economy sizzles
A global economic bright spot.
How the Japan got its groove back

Mexico has a standard 48-hour workweek
Legislation considers a cut to 40 hours.
Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders wants a 32-hour workweek

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Russia stealing Ukrainian children
Images of the Ukrainian dam destruction
A potential ecological disaster
Russia is just plain evil.

Russia has a demography problem
And it’s going to get worse.

The summer Ukraine offensive starts.
The war comes to Russia

FINANCE

Investor-backed companies
May be in big trouble

Bank regulatory capital ratios may rise
Will this put a crimp on lending?

The M&A market hasn’t evaporated.
Owner-managed companies are still selling

PE has been on a healthcare binge
Are investors about to get indigestion?

REAL ESTATE

Interest-only loans were popular.
Now they need refinancing
Is a multifamily oversupply coming?

Largest hotel in SF
Goes back to its lender, JPM

Blackstone scores big
On early warehouse investments

TECHNOLOGY

America’s largest semiconductor makers
Visual Capitalist gives us the breakdown.

How Apple makes the big bucks.
Planned obsolescence, for sure

Tech companies don’t want you to know

About the growing e-waste problem

THE CHAT ON AI

Why AI will save the world
Investor Marc Andreessen tells us.
The industries most at risk from AI

AI could create environmental problems
Is it an energy hog?

ChatGPT will revolutionize the economy.
Here’s how

THE NEXT NORMAL

Get phones out of schools now!
The Atlantic makes sense here.

US mayors’ top concern
Is our “unprecedented” mental health crisis

Record number of US workers are immigrants
Welcome to the land of opportunity!

THE WAR ON CARBON

Saudi Arabia cuts oil production
The oil market yawns

Radical environmentalists are slashing SUV tires
Saving earth by…destroying property?

Is an eco-disaster on the horizon?
Spent solar panels could create a big problem.

THE NEW ENERGY TRANSITION

Can satellites beam down solar energy?
Scientists get encouraging results.

What counts as a carbon credit?
UN bureaucrats are debating.

ExxonMobile has a new fracking process
That could double well production.
The new American oil boom

THE EV DREAM

We may have a new source of lithium
From oil and gas wells
But how do we solve the nickel pickle?
And the copper conundrum?

Ultra-range EVs are coming
The tipping point for adoption?
While an early EV adopter feels duped

VW seeks to wean itself from China
Yet China my become the world’s EV maker
They’re way ahead on battery technology

THE CHINA SYNDROME

Cuba to host secret China spy base
Well it’s not a secret anymore.

US imports of Chinese-made goods
Are falling fast
US corporations lower their China expectations

Another big Chinese developer is in trouble
Hong Kong office occupancy is down big
More real estate woes in China.

THE WASHING-TONE

The SEC sues Binance
Justice Department is after it, too
Are crypto’s days numbered?

UK’s PM Sunak visits Washington
Looking to tighten up alliances.

College sports leaders talk to lawmakers.
Must they share revenue with athletes?

MAKING A BETTER YOU

When walking, watch out for awe
It’s all around you.

Want a more enjoyable and fulfilling life?
Then learn to do nothing

People who strength train
Live longer
So do people who live close to the ocean
Did Muscle Beach crack the code way back when?

HOW ABOUT A BREAK

We live in the loneliest galaxy
That certainly seems odd.

When did you lose your virginity? (A rhetorical question!)
The average age by country

The world’s most beautiful post offices
Do we even need post offices anymore?

IT’S VACATION TIME

America’s top beaches
If you want to chill by the sea.

The land of maybes
Get lost in the Faroe Islands.

21 reasons to visit New Zealand
Can we visit a Hobbit shire?

SONG OF THE WEEK

“The Kiss” by Judee Sill in 1973.
Judee Sill burned out early
Lyrics are poetry, you know.

CASTING AROUND THE PODS

High interest rates could be here for years
From the mouth of rates guru, Jim Grant.

VIDEOS OF THE WEEK

La Pitchoune
A new cooking show in France.

“I Have Dreamed Of You So Much”
A dreamy French surrealist poem.

All the Light We Cannot See
A Pulitzer Prize winner comes to the big screen.

FROM THE HEADHUNTER’S KITCHEN

Yammy lemon rolls recipe
Upping the cinnamon roll game.

The secret to cooking a great porterhouse
Sizzle me up!

The 20 most-saved recipes
From the NYT food section.

THE RANDOMS

Why is the world letting Russia get away with invading, waging war on, and destroying Ukraine?

Of what value is crypto to anyone other than gamblers and criminals?

Over the last 40 years, Western automakers have enjoyed little disruptive competition until Tesla came along. But now they have a new 800-pound gorilla about to unleash its full competitive force. Welcome to the world of Chinese car-making.

There are numerous efforts to remove carbon from the air. Have we considered the unintended consequences of doing so? Can humans really manage earth’s climate anyway?

That Ukraine dam that was blown apart will have a negative effect on Ukraine’s future agricultural output. Will this cause food inflation to go even higher?

Given last week’s jobs report, has all the talk about a recession been misplaced? Has a recession been postponed?

With the boycotts of Anheuser-Busch and Target and the shareholder votes at major oil companies, are woke narratives in retreat?

Apple just announced its VR headset, Vision Pro. I guess we’re about to see how many people think virtual reality is more interesting than real reality. The “father of the iPod” isn’t a fan. Is Apple about to stumble from perfection?

I’m starting to think about making Sunday an electronics-free day. 

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

The War on Poverty Is Over
June 2, 2023

Philosophy Majors Make Big Bucks
May 27, 2023