The Golden Goose

Welcome to This Week’s Leyendecker View

The task of the leader is to get people from where they are to where they have not been.
–Henry Kissinger

FAVORITE READ OF THE WEEK

The Economics of DEI and Merit
From black Harvard economist, Roland Fryer

FAVORITE WATCH OF THE WEEK

Fixing the American Dream
Comedian Andrew Schulz joins All-In for a funny and substantive episode

THINKING OUT LOUD

The Golden Goose

I recently had this interesting epiphany…

If it weren’t for fossil fuels, we would not have sneakers. Instead, we’d be walking around in uncomfortable shoes made from animal skins. Imagine how many animals we’d have to kill.

The modern world was built on the back of fossil fuels. Oil, gas and coal have powered human progress for over two centuries, transforming societies from agrarian to industrial to digital. To contemplate a world without these energy sources is to imagine an entirely different trajectory for human civilization—one that would likely be significantly less economically vibrant and alien to our current experience.

Without fossil fuels, the pace of industrialization would have been dramatically slower. The Industrial Revolution, which began in the late 18th century, ran on coal. This dense energy source allowed factories to operate regardless of location, weather or time of day—advantages that water (hydro) and wind power could not provide. Without coal, manufacturing would have remained tethered to riverbanks and windswept hills, constraining industrial development to specific geographic regions.

Transportation, perhaps more than any other sector, would be unrecognizable without oil and gas. The internal combustion engine—which powers cars, trucks, ships and planes—depends entirely on petroleum products.

Without these fuels, mass personal transportation might never have developed. Cities would likely be much smaller and designed around walkability and hydroelectric trams. International travel would remain the privilege of the wealthy, undertaken by sail-powered vessels or expensive electric trains where infrastructure permitted.

The absence of fossil fuels would have profoundly affected global food production. Modern agriculture relies on natural gas-derived fertilizers and diesel-powered machinery. Without these inputs, agricultural productivity would be significantly lower and require more land and human labor to feed the population.

Plastics, which are derived from petroleum, might not exist or would be limited to natural polymers from plants. Many synthetic fabrics, pharmaceuticals and consumer products (like sneakers!) that we take for granted would either not exist or would be produced through more expensive and limited means.

In the end, it is impossible to overstate the transformative power of fossil fuels on human history. These energy sources have been the foundation upon which modern society and prosperity were built. The unprecedented economic growth of the past two centuries—which lifted billions from poverty and extended both lifespan and life quality—would have been impossible without the energy density and versatility of oil, gas and coal.

Our technological marvels, our global food systems, our medical advances and our interconnected world all owe their existence to the power unleashed from these fuels.

It’s questionable whether the planet could support its current population of eight billion people without fossil fuels or if the global population could have ever grown to this scale.

The story of fossil fuels is the story of human ingenuity harnessing nature’s resources to create a world of abundance and possibility unimaginable to previous generations. As we look to the future, we do so from the vantage point of societies transformed and empowered by the extraordinary gift of accessible, concentrated energy that fossil fuels have provided.

The future of energy may be to transition from fossil fuels to something else, or broader energy generation sources will be added to our energy mix. But our future will not be as bright as the recent past has been until new technologies can mimic the low cost, availability, reliability and energy density of fossil fuels. 

We should be careful trying to slaughter our true Golden Goose.

THE RANDOMS

Do you think Putin cares about what Trump thinks because Trump is so much taller? Or do you think Putin is playing Trump.

The process of step change tends to break things. We’re no longer in a “go along to get along” world. The concerns about our growing debt have coincided with the economic stress on those lacking financial assets. 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the public sector union membership rate (32.2%) remains five times higher than the private sector union rate (5.9%). Just sayin’.

I can’t say it enough: If any country or region has offshore wind that provides a significant share of their electricity generation, then how easy is it for an enemy of war to knock out that power source? What, you think we’ll never have any more wars?

Since we are considering adding Greenland and the Panama Canal to US holdings, should we also consider the UK? It desperately needs a MAGA reboot.

Why can’t we let illegal immigrants self-deport in order to be put on a priority list to return to the United States legally? The sooner you self-deport, the sooner you’ll be considered for re-entry.

The next private equity wave may come when investors focus on companies that use AI to significantly increase their productivity and profitability.

Is NATO even necessary these days?

ECONOMIC NEWS

Economy
What’s going to grow the economy?

Fed keep rates steady
US industrial production pops
As do new housing starts
February retail sales okay, but not great
Consumers expect long-term inflation

Labor
No fun being a worker these days.

Computer programmer jobs collapse
Job seekers hit wall of wage deflation
Is law school the answer?

BUSINESS

Finance
TX giving Wall Street a run for its money?

NASDAQ opens Texas office
Why the gold price keeps hitting records
AI is the modern gold rush

Real Estate
Replace property taxes with what?

Home sales grow
Florida considers ending property taxes
The high-end homes in disaster zones
Policy suggestions for affordable housing

Tech
Sometimes simple is better.

All new tech isn’t good tech
Europe’s new revenue idea
Drones work well at Mount Everest
Nvidia and GM hook up
Amazon Echo sending your words to the cloud

AI
Is AI smarter, or is it just making us dumber?

Nvidia to invest billions in the US
AI will be smarter than humans in 5 years
Computers will never be the same
DeepSeek seeks research, not revenue
Is AI eroding our critical thinking skills?

Energy
Could BYD crush Tesla?

Looks like Greenpeace is toast
No energy transition is coming
BYD battery system charges EVs in 5 minutes

THE NATION

The Washing-Tone
Never a dull moment in Trump’s DC.

Do we need a Department of Education?
Trump can’t control the courts
Were Biden’s pardons illegal?
Is it time to dump the EPA?
Are states gaming Medicaid?

DOGE
Musk saves NASA—and two astronauts.

SpaceX brings astronauts home, finally
Dolphins greet them upon safe landing
More government jobs to be cut

The Tariff War
Tariff uncertainty continues.

Mexico has a big tariff problem
EU and India eye trade deal
Tariff risks explode trade deficit
China’s tariff work-around

Social Trends
Lots of lessons to be learned.

Are the Tesla attacks domestic terrorism?
How easy money bred bad ideas
Republicans may tax university endowments
State Republicans embrace DOGE

GEOPOLITICS

Global
What will the new world order be?

Milei gets push back in Argentina
Congo wants to cut a Trump deal
Old world order is overrated
Ethiopia is on the verge of civil war

Europe
Europe trying to adjust to Trump 2.0.

Is Europe a pretender?
Germany approves massive fiscal stimulus
Macron touts France’s nuclear arsenal
Can Europe even afford more defense spending?

Ukraine
Is some stability in sight?

A ceasefire seems to be in place
Looks like drones were excluded
Putin to stop attacks on Ukraine energy targets
Is Putin gaming ceasefire talks?

Middle East
No easy answer in the Middle East.

Israel back to bombing Gaza
And they’ve sent in troops
Iran factions are scrambling
Can Syria create order?
US attacks Yemen’s Houthi sites
Houthis vow to retaliate

China
Can we trust China?

China executes four Canadians
Chinese cars taking over South America
China ups pressure on Taiwan
China tries to be countercyclical to the US

War Creep
Is the urge to conquer gone for good?

Sweden prepares for Arctic war
China, Russia and Iran send the West a message
Why nations stopped conquering nations
China dominates US in shipbuilding
Here come the drone boats!

MAKING A BETTER YOU

Mind
Get more quiet time.

Chewing wood may boost memory
Habits to develop deep understanding
Why just enough is all you need

Body
Get more outside time.

Explosive exercise helps aging
Eating citrus may lower depression risk
Using breaks to increase productivity

FUN STUFF

Let your hair down, baby! Even if you’re all alone.

The Extraordinary

A Greenland shark can live 400 years
Why serendipity is so important
The biggest part on the planet

Music That Found Us

Antoine Boyer’s “An Ancient Tale”
Alan Gogoll’s “Lioness Lullabies”
“The Book of Sounds, Part 2”

Worth a Watch

The greatest dumb comedies ever!
Baseball lessons, Eephus trailer.
Hellboy: The Crooked Man is spooky fun.
New Jurassic World: Rebirth trailer.

The Yum Yums

Chocolate Guinness cake, oh my!
Porcini ragù is yum yummy.
Classic shrimp and grits
Bananas foster, oh boy!

PARTING THOUGHTS

The world is in perpetual motion, and we must invent the things of tomorrow. One must go before others, be determined and exacting, and let your intelligence direct your life. Act with audacity.

– Madame Clicquot, the “Grande Dame of Champagne”

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